When you're considering IVF, one of the first questions is usually "what are my chances?" The answer matters—financially, emotionally, and practically. But navigating IVF statistics can be confusing. Different clinics report numbers differently, and marketing materials often present the most optimistic scenarios.
This guide breaks down real IVF success rates from the CDC's national database, explains what factors affect your individual odds, and helps you have informed conversations with your fertility clinic.
Understanding How IVF Success Is Measured
Before diving into numbers, it's important to understand what "success" means in IVF statistics—because different measures can paint very different pictures.
Pregnancy Rate
Percentage of cycles resulting in a positive pregnancy test. Higher than live birth rate because it includes miscarriages and chemical pregnancies.
Clinical Pregnancy Rate
Percentage with a heartbeat confirmed on ultrasound around 6-7 weeks. More reliable than pregnancy rate, but still doesn't equal live birth.
Live Birth Rate
Percentage resulting in a baby born alive. This is the number that matters most—the one you should focus on when comparing clinics.
Cumulative Rate
Success rate across multiple cycles or from all embryos from one retrieval. More realistic for understanding long-term chances.
When a clinic quotes success rates, always confirm they're discussing live birth rates per cycle started, not pregnancy rates. The difference can be 10-15 percentage points, which significantly affects your planning.
IVF Success Rates by Age: The Numbers
Age is the single biggest factor affecting IVF success. Here's what the CDC national data shows for cycles using the patient's own eggs:
| Age | Live Birth Rate (per cycle) | Miscarriage Rate | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 35 | 44-50% | 10-15% | Excellent prognosis |
| 35-37 | 37-42% | 15-20% | Very good prognosis |
| 38-40 | 26-32% | 20-25% | Good with expectations |
| 41-42 | 15-20% | 25-35% | Moderate, multiple cycles likely |
| 43-44 | 6-10% | 35-45% | Challenging, consider donor eggs |
| Over 44 | 1-3% | 50%+ | Donor eggs recommended |
Detailed Age Breakdown
Women under 35 have the highest IVF success rates, with nearly half of cycles resulting in live birth. Multiple eggs are typically retrieved, and embryo quality is generally high.
Success rates remain strong in this age group, with most women achieving pregnancy within 1-2 cycles. Egg quality is still good, though chromosomal abnormality rates begin increasing.
Success rates decline more noticeably in this group. Multiple cycles are more often needed, and PGT-A (genetic testing) becomes more valuable for selecting viable embryos.
Per-cycle success rates are lower, but success remains achievable with multiple cycles. Clinics may recommend egg banking (multiple retrievals before transfer) or donor egg discussion.
Success with own eggs becomes challenging, with high chromosome abnormality rates. Many women in this age group achieve success through donor eggs, which maintain high success rates regardless of recipient age.
Own Eggs vs. Donor Eggs
One of the most significant decisions for women over 40 is whether to use their own eggs or donor eggs. Here's how success rates compare:
Success rates with donor eggs remain stable regardless of recipient age because egg quality depends on the donor's age, not yours. A 45-year-old using eggs from a 25-year-old donor has similar success rates to a 30-year-old using her own eggs.
Factors Beyond Age That Affect IVF Success
While age is the biggest predictor, many other factors influence your individual chances:
Diagnosis
Best prognosis: Male factor only, unexplained, tubal factor. More challenging: Diminished ovarian reserve, severe endometriosis, multiple factors.
Ovarian Reserve (AMH/AFC)
Higher AMH and antral follicle counts predict better egg yield. However, egg quantity doesn't always equal quality—some women with low reserve produce high-quality eggs.
Clinic Experience
Clinic success rates can vary by 10-20+ percentage points. Experience with your specific diagnosis matters. Check CDC clinic success rates.
Embryo Quality
Blastocyst (Day 5) embryos have higher implantation rates than Day 3. PGT-tested normal embryos have 60-70% implantation rates vs. 40-50% untested.
BMI
Both very low (<18.5) and high (>35) BMI can reduce success rates. Optimal medication response occurs at BMI 20-30.
Smoking
Smoking reduces IVF success by up to 50% and accelerates egg aging by 10 years. Quitting before IVF significantly improves outcomes.
Previous Pregnancies
Prior successful pregnancies (even from IVF) improve prognosis. Previous live births are the best predictor of future success.
Sperm Quality
Severe male factor can be overcome with ICSI. DNA fragmentation may affect embryo development and implantation.
Fresh vs. Frozen Embryo Transfers
Modern freezing techniques (vitrification) have made frozen embryo transfers as successful—or even more successful—than fresh transfers in many cases.
Transfer Type Comparison
Cumulative Success Rates: The Bigger Picture
Single-cycle statistics can be misleading because most people who need IVF end up doing multiple cycles. Cumulative rates show your realistic chances across several attempts:
| Age Group | After 1 Cycle | After 2 Cycles | After 3 Cycles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 35 | 47% | 65-70% | 75-85% |
| 35-37 | 40% | 58-62% | 65-75% |
| 38-40 | 29% | 45-50% | 55-65% |
| 41-42 | 17% | 30-35% | 40-50% |
| Over 42 | 5-8% | 12-15% | 18-25% |
These rates include transfers from embryos frozen during each retrieval. One egg retrieval often produces multiple embryos, so you may have several transfer opportunities from a single stimulation cycle.
Questions to Ask Your Clinic About Success Rates
Not all clinics report success rates the same way. Here are essential questions to ask:
- "What is your live birth rate per cycle started for my age group?" — Not per transfer, per cycle started. This accounts for cancelled cycles.
- "What are your success rates for my specific diagnosis?" — Overall rates may not reflect your individual situation.
- "How many cycles does the average patient in my situation need?" — Helps with financial and emotional planning.
- "What percentage of your patients achieve pregnancy within 3 cycles?" — Cumulative success is often more relevant.
- "Do your quoted rates include PGT-tested embryos?" — Tested embryo transfers have higher success rates and may inflate overall numbers.
- "What is your single embryo transfer rate?" — High twin rates might inflate success numbers but increase pregnancy risks.
Understanding SART and CDC Data
The Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology (SART) and Centers for Disease Control (CDC) maintain the most comprehensive IVF success rate databases in the United States.
Where to find official data:
• SART Patient Predictor — Estimates your personal success based on specific factors
• CDC ART Success Rates — Clinic-by-clinic data for comparison
Note: Published data is typically 2 years old due to tracking live births from pregnancies achieved.
Frequently Asked Questions
Several factors explain clinic variations: patient selection (some clinics turn away difficult cases), laboratory quality and protocols, physician experience, whether rates include PGT-tested embryos, single vs. multiple embryo transfer policies, and how rates are calculated. When comparing, ensure you're looking at the same metrics (live birth per cycle started for your age group).
Not necessarily. Very high rates may indicate selective patient acceptance (turning away challenging cases). Look for clinics with strong rates for your diagnosis and age group specifically. Also consider location, communication style, patient reviews, cost transparency, and whether you feel comfortable with the team.
More eggs generally means more embryos to work with, which is helpful. However, there's an optimal range (around 10-15 eggs). Very high egg yields (20+) may indicate over-stimulation and don't necessarily improve live birth rates. Quality matters more than quantity—one genetically normal embryo has a 60-70% implantation rate.
First-cycle failures are common and don't mean subsequent cycles won't work. Your doctor can learn from the first cycle to adjust medication protocols, transfer timing, or add additional testing. Many patients succeed on second or third cycles. Cumulative success rates across multiple cycles are significantly higher than single-cycle rates.
There's no absolute cutoff, but success rates with own eggs become very low after 43-44. Most clinics will discuss donor eggs as the primary recommendation for women over 42-43. Some clinics do have age limits (often 50-55) even for donor egg cycles due to pregnancy risks in older women.
This depends on your age, diagnosis, response to treatment, and financial/emotional resources. Most fertility specialists suggest reassessing after 3-4 unsuccessful cycles. However, for women over 42 with poor response, the conversation about donor eggs may happen sooner. Your doctor can help determine when trying something different makes more sense.
Ready to Learn More About Your Options?
Our in-depth guides cover everything from finding the right clinic to understanding specific fertility diagnoses.
Explore Fertility Treatments →